Hydrocarbon exploration in Africa: a strategic turning point

Africa is at a crucial turning point in the hydrocarbon sector, with vast areas still underexplored and recent advances promising strategic growth. Deepwater discoveries in Southern and West Africa, along with renewed interest in onshore resources in Angola, challenge the notion that Africa's success depends solely on megaprojects. These developments underscore the importance of geology, export infrastructure, and domestic politics in assessing the basins' commercial prospects.

According to the African Energy Chamber , Namibia's Orange Basin has become the epicenter of exploration. TotalEnergies' discovery off the Namibian coast represents a major breakthrough, with development planned around an FPSO capable of processing 160,000 barrels per day. A final investment decision is expected in 2026, with first oil production expected between 2029 and 2030. TotalEnergies also plans to drill the Olympe-1X prospect, marking a bold move into uncharted waters.

South Africa is also playing a key role in this renaissance, with projects such as those from Rhino Resources and Shell, which are planning a five-well campaign. However, commercial constraints and legal obstacles, such as disputes over exploration permits, are slowing the timeline.

Angola presents a unique opportunity with its ultra-deep waters and Kwanza Basin, which could see its first pre-salt exploration well since the 1980s. Corcel's planned drilling in 2026 could open up a new oil province. Institutional and regulatory reforms implemented by the Angolan government are essential to the success of these projects.

Côte d'Ivoire is emerging as a key exploration destination, with Murphy Oil's Civette-1 well scheduled for the fourth quarter of 2025. This well could reveal new exploitation concepts and highlight the potential of surrounding fields. Additionally, São Tomé and Príncipe is attracting attention with Shell's Falcao-1 exploratory well, which builds on Galp Energias' Jaca-1 discovery.

Recent exploration reveals that even “failures” can be valuable. Non-commercial wells that encounter source rocks help refine basin models and reduce future exploration costs. Investors are beginning to favor smaller, faster-moving oil projects, which can generate clear cash flows and shift government incentives.

The next wave of exploration in Africa is more than just a boom. It represents a smart push into the last unexplored basins. Companies that take a flexible approach and see the value in early production could reap greater rewards. By focusing on solid infrastructure and developing multiple production sites, this new wave of exploration could finally unlock Africa's energy potential.

Djami